powerpunch

Note to Potential testers

Thanks for volunteering as a tester. By volunteering as a tester we assume you have the experience and knowledge to test the EA to the standards acceptable to yourself and to us. This is not a “how to test course” or a “follow these steps” process. We assume you know how to load testing data history and how to run optimization process to refine your results to find a wide band of settings that work at acceptable profitability (+80%). You need to decide which processes ( timeframes etc) and testing methodology (tick data etc) will give you the best and most reliable test results. Your results will be verified by a 2nd team of testers so they need to be robust.  After reading the information below, the training material and being aware of the testing deadline please do not purchase the EA if you are unsure of whether you will be able to deliver the required testing output. Please raise any questions in the Forum – the link and password is in the email sent to you. If you want to expand the testing after completing the part assigned to you please go ahead. You can test different settings, periods, currencies etc. Please give you feedback in the Forum.

The Theory

The hypothesis of this EA is that when there is a trend (of a certain size and start and end time) in the European market the US Market will Power Punch it back (Reverse the European trend) and this fact can be used to trade the Forex market profitably(using stops and targets).

How to prove the theory

In order to do this the following needs to be determined to have produced a high % of successful trades over the last 3 to 6 months:-

  • A band (or range) of start times for the trend
  • A band of end times for the trend
  • A band for the size of the trend
  • A band for the size of the stop
  • A band for the size of the target.

An example of a recent test

A recent test of the GBPUSD produced the following results:-

The settings for the GBPUSD for the GMT hours using

  • start times of 5:00 to 7:30  ( 6 options using 30 minute gaps)
  • And end times of 10:00 to 12:30  (6 options using 30 minute gaps)
  • when set for a trend of 40 to 60 pips  ( 3 options using a 10 pip gap)
  • and stops of 40 to 100 and ( 4 options using a 20 pip gap )
  • targets of 80 to  140 give  (4 options given a 20 pip gap)

a total result that is 85% profitable over the last 6 months.

Total options: 6 x 6 x 3 x 4 x 4  =  1728 options

Of the 1728 options tested 105 were not profitable. So the success rate was 94% for the above bands which proves the theory.

So we are not specifically looking for optimized setting – we are looking for a wide range of settings that produced a success rate of more than 80%.

The Trick

So the trick is to get the total options as high as possible and still have a profitable % over 80%

A guide would be to have more than 2000 options tested with results over 80% positive

That will make the EA robust for future trading.

Your job as a tester

To prove that the EA has a big chance of success in the future by finding and maximizing the number of setting options that still achieve a +80%/90% success rate.

Band Optimization approach

The Prime trend period for these trades should be from the start of the European session to the start of the US session. Say from 5:00 GMT to 14:00 GMT at most. So that cuts the optimization period down considerably.

Ideally the stop should be smaller than the target so the range for the stops should be 60 pips to 120 pips and the range for the targets should be 80 pips to 140 pips.

These should be the initial areas of focus and moving beyond these boundaries should only be considered if optimization results are not robust. Also only practical settings will be should be considered – for example a targets over 200 pips or stops over 150 pips may not be practical.

The periods of band optimizations should be for the last 3 months and 6 months for refund purposes.

Currencies

The main focus will be on the following currencies:

GBPUSD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD and the USDCAD

In the email sent to you you will find the Currency your should focus on.

Testing Output

The table below shows the format in which the testing results should be presented. An excel spreadsheet is available for download in the Forum.

testing results

 

Testing tips

  • Use big testing gaps to start with  30 min ones for time and 20 pips for trend size, stop size and target size.
  • Make your first test as wide as possible – test wide settings with big gaps
  • Use the optimisation heatmaps to find the best band of settings
  • Run as many optimisation runs as is needed to get the best band settings
  • Download your testing results into Excel to count your successful and unsuccessful results

Testing process video

A video will be posted to give you more guidance on the testing process.

2 Comments

  • Geoffrey Lowes

    Reply Reply June 25, 2015

    I really think that is beyond my scope of understanding, so unfortunately will have to pass on the offer. I am sorry I am unable to be part of the testing team. I has nothing to do with purchasing the EA, I am just not confident I have the skills to do the actual testing. Your offer of refunding the EA to testers is more than fair and generous

  • Mick

    Reply Reply June 26, 2015

    I was concerned about the possible affect daylight saving might have on the times component of the EA.

    I finally started using my brain this morning. I went to the backtest data & added the daily period separators to a chart. Then went back to the changeover of daylight saving for US at start of November 2014. The weekend gap shows correctly. For my broker (with only 5 daily candles) the new week starts at 00:00. However, if I go to the previous week I have 2 vertical lines one at 23:00 & the other at 00:00.

    So it looks like the data isn’t adjusted for daylight saving. The pre & post daylight saving periods are different by 1 hour. This is contrary to what the program stated during the transfer process.

    So I will start my testing from 3rd November to 6th March as that is within one DS period. Then the 2nd period will go from 9th March to 31st May.

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